| The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives | 
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Avg. Customer Rating:   (based on 59 reviews)
Sales Rank: 614
Category: Book
Author: Leonard Mlodinow
Publisher: Pantheon
Studio: Pantheon
Manufacturer: Pantheon
Label: Pantheon
Languages: English (Original Language), English (Unknown), English (Published)
Media: Hardcover
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 272
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.2
Dimensions (in): 9.3 x 6.3 x 1.1
ISBN: 0375424040
Dewey Decimal Number: 519.2
EAN: 9780375424045
ASIN: 0375424040
Publication Date: May 13, 2008
Release Date: May 13, 2008
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
Amazon.com Review
Amazon Guest Review: Stephen Hawking
Published in 1988, Stephen Hawking?s A Brief History of Time became perhaps one of the unlikeliest bestsellers in history: a not-so-dumbed-down exploration of physics and the universe that occupied the London Sunday Times bestseller list for 237 weeks. Later successes include 1995?s A Briefer History of Time, The Universe in a Nutshell, and God Created the Integers: The Mathematical Breakthroughs that Changed History. Stephen Hawking is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge.  In The Drunkard?s Walk Leonard Mlodinow provides readers with a wonderfully readable guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives. With insight he shows how the hallmarks of chance are apparent in the course of events all around us. The understanding of randomness has brought about profound changes in the way we view our surroundings, and our universe. I am pleased that Leonard has skillfully explained this important branch of mathematics. --Stephen Hawking
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| Customer Reviews: Read 54 more reviews...
 Interesting, but an inconsistency January 3, 2009
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
I'm sure most of the arguments made in the book are sound, but I must point out a paragraph in which he failed to remain consistent about his own argument. In chapter two, Mlodinow argues that many people would choose (A and B) to be more probable than (B), and that this is mathematically and logically impossible. However, on a paragraph on page 25 he then proceeds to argue how highly trained doctors make this mistake, and provides two choices given to them. Unfortunately, the choices offered were (A and B) vs (only B), not the previous (A and B) vs (B). His use of the word "only" equates to (B and ~A). (B and ~A) is certainly not always more probable than (A and B). For instance, if A is .90, and B is .11, then (A and B) = .90 * .11 = .099. (B and ~A) = .11 * (1-.90) = .011. .099 > .011, showing that in this case, (A and B) is more probable than (only B).
a bit technical December 31, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
This book is really interesting but is a bit more technical than I had anticipated. An Understanding of math is helpful.
Skip if you took Stats in college December 27, 2008
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
Some interesting anecdotes, nice historical notes and intriguing opening and closing chapters, but not worth the cost or the read if you've already studied statistics in at school.
 THIS IS AN OUTSTANDING BOOK December 23, 2008
I own the audio version of this book and although I'm not much of a math guy I enjoyed it so much I had to buy the hard cover book to give to my father in law. He is an avid reader and loves math so I expect he will get a kick out of this. Read it or listen to it. This book will make you think. A very nice piece of work!
An excellent read December 22, 2008
Mlodinow puts concepts of mathematical randomness in terms that anyone can understand, and makes a lot of interesting points. One of my favorites is that in string of 100 million truly random coin tosses, there will be at least 10 non-overlapping runs of all heads or all tails. What this tells us is that if one considers the jillions of events that happen to each of us in a lifetime, at some point there will be a string of events that all seem to "go your way" or the opposite. But this is the result of pure randomness - not "good luck" or prayer or whatever.
Another interesting concept is that of coaches or teachers who admonish their charges when they do poorly and reward them when they do well, citing the improved results of the former action and concerning themselves with the reduction of prowess in the latter. Mlodinow points out that a team or a pilot or whatever will have an average performance, but will naturally have games or tests that will result in above- or below- average results. If a given result is above average, then odds are the next time it will fall back to the norm. If the result is below average (a player's bad performance, a lost game) then odds are the next time he will do better - whether or not the coach yells.
In all, some fascinating stuff in this book about everyday life situations and how our all-too-human minds do not have the makeup to recognize the inherent randomness of it all.
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